THE BULL MARKET REPORT EXTRA for April 14, 2025

by Scott Martin | Apr 13, 2025 | Weekly Newsletter 7pm Sunday

The Bull Market Report
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Market Summary

After teasing a possible special edition of The Bull Market Report last week, we'd like to give you a little insight on what we've seen in the market and how investors can position themselves. So here we are. The mood remains extremely anxious, especially with Treasury bonds selling off contrary to the conventional wisdom where money flows into the safety of U.S. government debt when the economic outlook gets gloomy. While we aren't exactly shocked (correlations between stocks and bonds have gotten tighter in recent years than a lot of now-outdated textbooks taught), it can be harrowing to watch all major U.S. asset classes go over a cliff. Even the dollar is on the run, down 11% from its recent peak and circling lows last seen in the 2022 bear market.

But cut through the surface turmoil and the signs of resilience are clear. The volatility index or "VIX" is still extremely elevated, but dropped 23% last week as investors shook off the initial tariff shock. If the initial announcement had been as toxic as the market reaction suggests, the economy would already have collapsed and we would not be here talking about stocks. That's a lot better than a catastrophic worst-case scenario. Furthermore, developments in the past couple of days prove that trade policy isn't inflexible nor an ultimatum. Instead, there's a lot of room here for negotiation and compromise: timelines can be extended to give corporate leadership more time to react, some essential import categories can receive favorable treatment, and so on.

We've already seen tariffs on most countries delayed for 90 days, which gives purchasing managers until July to pivot their supply lines to the countries with the best odds of making a deal that works. And just over the weekend, we've seen tariffs on semiconductors and other computing components pulled back for adjustment, which takes the pressure off companies like Apple and Nvidia for the time being. Granted, the threat of additional trade barriers remains real. But the prospect for relief is real also. Right now, relief is winning. The trade war may be painful but at least it wasn't immediately fatal.

And stocks that were priced for the end of the world now look worth buying. Major benchmarks exploded on Wednesday when the 90-day pause was announced, with many of our stocks leading the way back. Our Early Stage recommendations, as small and theoretically vulnerable as they are, rebounded close to 30% in the last three trading days. On the other end of the market scale, giants like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft have recovered 8-10% from their lows while Nvidia bounced 15%. We could keep listing names (Meta, Broadcom, Reddit, Dell, Duolingo, Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks) but the deeper message is as simple as it gets: when 80-90% of all stocks move hard in the same direction, all that's required to get 80-90% of all stocks moving in the other direction is for the Wall Street tide to change.

That's what happened here. We are not exactly swimming in calm waters by any means, but the waves went our way this week. Money will likely keep flowing out of the bond market. Where will it go? We suspect a significant amount of capital will come back to stocks, which may be volatile but offer investors hope for better than a 3-5% return in the long run. Capital will also park in the ultimate safety of gold, where our SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) remains a real bulwark of our overall coverage universe. It's good to have a hedge when the world gets unsettled. Gold is the place.

Meanwhile, earnings season is underway, with the banks giving us pretty good numbers on Friday. JP Morgan and Citgroup don't see an immediate disaster unfolding. While we're early in the season, warnings and negative guidance revisions are NOT multiplying at too fast a speed yet. Executives might not like watching their supply chains and manufacturing costs get tangled, but they aren't surrendering either. They're fighting hard. And they think they have a handle on the situation. If they didn't, they'd warn us now and look like heroes in three months when they beat their own pessimistic forecasts.

The next few months will remain volatile, with bond yields back where they were two months ago and the VIX well above "normal" no matter where you draw the statistical boundaries. But at this stage, corporate earnings will probably come in 7% higher this quarter than they were a year ago and the growth trend still points up into 2026 and beyond. Remember, profit margins are relatively high by historical standards, so there's room for a shock or two without rocking the comparisons too much. And remember that interest rates have dropped significantly in the past year, with the Fed poised to cut again on any sign of economic damage more threatening than persistent inflation. Lower short-term rates are supportive. They're a net positive. And we don't recommend Treasury bonds here, so higher long-term rates are not our problem and should not be yours either.

What we're left with is an environment where 70% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are in correction territory and a full 40% are in the grip of a fresh bear market. Apple, Alphabet and Amazon are down 24% from their recent peaks. Nvidia and Meta are down 27%. And the list of great stocks at depressed levels goes on, both on the BMR buy lists and in the broader market. Walmart down 12%. ExxonMobil down 19%. Classic "defensive" names like Johnson & Johnson down 11%. This is classically an entry point, a chance to buy quality at a deep discount, provided that you aren't convinced that the world is about to end. Wall Street has faced every crisis that history could throw at it so far and gone back to breaking records. This time is no different.

Key Market Indicators

Good Investing,

Todd Shaver, Founder and CEO
The Bull Market Report
Since 1998